Joba’s a Starter. Get Over It.

Columns — By Scott Ham on April 1, 2009 10:30 am

Must… tune out… Wallace… Matthews… before he… melts… brain…

Joba Chamberlain had his best outing of the spring Tuesday,, limiting the Reds to five hits and two runs in 51/3 innings. He was so good, in fact, that he pitched the Yankees almost to the point where, ideally, Joba Chamberlain would come into the game.

And that’s the problem.

Not even Joba, as good as he is, can fill two roles at once. He can start a game or he can finish it.

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The reality with starters is that they are six-inning pitchers on most days, seven- and eight-inning pitchers on their best days.

In four out of every five starts, they are going to need a guy to come charging out of that bullpen in the seventh inning to hold the game until the closer gets there.

A guy like Joba Chamberlain.

But Joba isn’t doing that anymore. Greater baseball minds than mine have analyzed this situation at great length and determined that Joba for the first six innings every five days is better than Joba out of the bullpen five times a week.

I say that’s like hiring Picasso to paint your garage door or asking Mozart to come up with a toothpaste jingle. Many can start; few can finish. Joba can finish. He was a great setup man, and someday he’ll be a great closer. Those commodities are a lot scarcer on the market than starting pitchers.

Oh, Wallace.  First, you enlightened us to the fact that having ARod out of the lineup was a good thing, and now you’re telling us that relievers are more valuable than starters.  There are days when I wake up in the morning and question my own intelligence.  And then, there are days when I wake up and read your column and suddenly I feel better about myself.

I’m going to reach into the ole Bronx View bag and pick out a few “Joba should start” arguments.  Ooh!  Here’s one:

1. Starters can throw 200+ innings a season.  Closers rarely break 100.

Do I want one of my best pitchers throwing 100 innings or 200 innings…  Hmmmmm…

But wait!  How important are the innings they’re throwing?

Right.  I forgot.  The ninth inning is more important than the first inning.  I mean, sure, they’re both one of nine innings, so theoretically, they’re equal.  But it’s more important to have a pitcher protect a lead rather than prevent a deficit.  Right?

Let’s think about this.  Where is there more room for error?  You can put a weaker pitcher in your rotation who will give up more runs early in a game and force your bullpen to pitch more often and with more deficits.  Or, you can have a more effective starter who gives up less runs, requires a bit less use of your bullpen, and leaves your bullpen a little more margin for error.

The answer seems obvious to everyone but Wallace Matthews, doesn’t it?

Reaching into the bag… Oh, here’s a good one:

2. ARod is the Yankees best hitter.  They should have him ride the bench and only bring him in when they need him.  Sabathia throws well.  So does Burnett.  Let’s start the farm in the rotation so that these guys can lock down the game when it’s important.

I really have nothing to add to that.  I just think it’s funny.

There’s another argument in here somewhere…  Ah!

3. Relievers historically breakdown a lot more than starters.

Matthews makes reference to Joba’s injury last season and how it proves he can’t handle the rotation over the long haul.  That’s a bit of speculation on Matthews part.  We don’t know exactly what caused the injury.  If we did, these things would be a lot more clear cut, wouldn’t they?

The problem with judging a reliever for the Yankees right now is very simple: Mariano Rivera is a statistical freak.  There are few relievers over the history of the game that have pitched to Rivera’s level for fourteen years.  It rarely happens that way, and Rivera might still be adding to that total.

People look at Joba in Rivera’s shadow and figure that if he becomes a reliever, he’s going to be a dominant pitcher for the next fourteen years.  Here’s the top twenty in saves from 2000 with a minimum of 60 IP:

Antonio Alfonseca
Trevor Hoffman
Derek Lowe
Todd Jones
Armando Benitez
Robb Nen
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Mariano Rivera
Keith Foulke
John Wetteland
Billy Koch
Jason Isringhausen
Troy Percival
Roberto Hernandez
Bob Wickman
Danny Graves
Dave Veres
Rick Aguilera
Jeff Shaw
Jose Jimenez
John Rocker
Mike Williams

Ok.  Not many guys on that list still effective.  Let’s be a little more fair.  2004:

Mariano Rivera
Francisco Cordero
Jason Isringhausen
Armando Benitez
Eric Gagne
John Smoltz
Joe Nathan
Jose Mesa
Trevor Hoffman
Danny Graves
Danny Kolb
Octavio Dotel
Shawn Chacon
Troy Percival
Keith Foulke
Danys Baez
Braden Looper
Brad Lidge
LaTroy Hawkins
Matt Herges

Ok.  How many of these guys were still saving games in 2008?  6:

Rivera, Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan, Trevor Hoffman, and Troy Percival.

Let’s break it down just a little bit further.  The save rule was created in 1969.  Fourty years we’ve had the superficial and somewhat flawed save rule.  In that forty years, only 31 guys have saved 20 games six or more times in their career.  Do you know how many starting pitchers have won at least 10 games six or more times in their career during that span?  117.

Taking all of this in, if you have a pitcher who projects to be a possible number one starter and you want to get the maximum amount of innings you can from him over the course of his career, would you start him or relieve him?

The overall logic here is very simple: Joba can always become a reliever.  If the guy can pitch, he can go out there for a couple of innings a week.  However, there is a limited window when he can develop the innings to be a starter and that window is slowly closing.  The Yankees have to try Joba as a starter first and give him the chance to further develop his arm to possibly throw 200 – 230 innings a year.  They have to.  Talent like this doesn’t come around every year.  One only needs to look at the Yankees over the past 20 years to understand that.

If he fails as a starter or can’t stay healthy, the bullpen is always a fallback option.  There’s no reason to fallback yet.

Tags: Joba Chamberlain, Wallace Matthews