For This Year, Burnett vs. Lowe Is A No Contest

Columns, Featured — By Ian Collier on October 6, 2009 6:21 pm

Remember?  It was just this past winter.  Seems like a lifetime ago, but it wasn’t.  It was December 12th, 2008.  The day the Yankees officially inked AJ Burnett to a contract, locked him in as a member of the Bombers’ rotation through 2013.

There was some outcry.  Singing a historically fragile pitcher to a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar contract?  Ludicrous.  The Evil Empire at its worst.  Burnett appeared Atlanta bound for a minute, but then Brian Cashman and the big-money Yankees swooped in and overwhelmed the hard-throwing righty.  Five years?  An average annual value of 16.5 million?  Absurdity.  Burnett was a frustrating player, a guy with a world of ability and some of the best raw stuff  in the Major Leagues, but an inability to translate this talent into a great season – unless he was about to reach free agency.  In his two walk years, 2005 and 2008, Burnett had pitched two of his merely 3 years of 200+ innings.  In the first two years of his contract with the Blue Jays, Burnett threw 135.2 and 165.2 IP.  In the third year – the walk year, due to an opt out option OK’ed by then-GM JP Ricciardi – he thew a career high 221.1.  Coincidence?

Why Burnett?  Why not Lowe, a pitcher with at least 32 starts in each of his last 7 seasons, a guy who was coming off a season in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and had not posted an ERA over 4 in 4 seasons?  A guy noted for his durability, his consistency, his proclivity to induce groundballs?  I was in the Lowe camp – go for the sure thing.  Don’t overpay for upside – look at results.

I was wrong.  So was everyone else.  At least in 2009.

Lowe’s struggles this season were startling – 15-10, 4.67 ERA, 89 ERA+.  All this done in the National League.  Imagine his translated American League line, particularly pitching in the East.  He had a 5.05 ERA in the second half and gave up the most hits of any pitcher in the National League while failing to reach 200 IP (he logged 194.2, compared to Burnett’s 207).

Burnett, on the other hand, despite his streakiness, finished the season at 13-9, 4.04 ERA, 110 ERA+ in the AL East.  He was 3.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and ended up being worth $14.5 million according to Fangraphs.  Lowe, meanwhile, ends up at 2.7 WAR and a value of $12.3 million.  His contract calls for an Average Annual Value of $15 million.  When we factor in league differences, it’s pretty obvious that Burnett has been the better value.

“Carl Pavano” was a name that popped up often when discussing Burnett’s deal.  An oft-injured pitcher given a lucrative multi-year contract?  Deja vu all over again.

One thing most critics – including myself – didn’t take into account was Burnett’s talent.  His stuff has always been electric.  Pavano was not that type of pitcher.  He was a pitch-to-contact, National League guy coming off a season in which he worked in a pitcher’s park with a solid defense, and posted a crazy lucky .285 Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP).  Burnett, meanwhile, was a guy coming off a season in which he led the American League in strikeouts and toiled in the same division as the Yankees.

In 2009, Lowe gave up a .333 BABIP, a far cry from a career rate of .295.  It was an unlucky year for him; perhaps his luck would have been different if he were with the Yankees and their much-improved defense.  But the smarter money is on this: AJ Burnett is a more talented pitcher than Derek Lowe.  He’s younger, suddenly durable, has a nuclear curveball and a fastball with a ton of movement and velocity.  Power pitching wins in the playoffs, which is where the Yankees will find themselves come Wednesday.  If you had to choose a horse to bet on in Game 2 or 3 of the ALDS, would it be Burnett and his potential for dominance and recent run of success?  Or Lowe, his inconsistent sinker, 4.67 ERA, and 5.1 K/9 rate?

When we look at Burnett’s contact, perhaps it’s best to compare apples to apples.  Rather than comparing him to Pavano, we should have been looking at a guy like Gil Meche, who had always flashed dynamite stuff but a frustrating lack of consistency.  In his first two years with the Royals after signing a widely-mocked contract, he posted ERA + figures of 128 and 107.  The Yankees banked on talent and upside, throwing caution to the wind and leaving the older, more consistent, more durable, but more underwhelming pitcher to another team.  As of October 2009, the Yankees bet right.

Tags: A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe