Looking Ahead: 2010 Starting Pitchers

We hear a lot nowadays about big market teams, middle market teams, little market teams…and of course, the Yankees.     There are a lot of things these franchises have in common; a lot of things they don’t have in common.   But one of the big things they do have in common is this:  Once the winter begins, they all start to wonder about who their five starters will be when next spring comes around.

The Yankees are no different.   As of this moment (and it’s obviously very early), the Yankees have two of their five starting spots secured:  CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett.   That’s obviously not a bad start – one of the biggest horses in the game & an enigmatic, but good,  power  pitcher to back him up.      So although it is possible that AJ Burnett will blow out his shoulder sometime between now & next April, let’s just say these two guys are set.    This way, we can look at who will fill slots 3-5.

Obviously, the first pitcher who probably comes to mind is Andy Pettitte.   Pettitte has become the Yankees’ (more expensive) version of Tim Wakefield.  A pitcher who can probably get a bit of a bidding war going for his services, but only wants to pitch in one place.   If it doesn’t work out, he’ll go home.    And of course, there is always the possibility that he’ll retire.  Why not?  He’s won five rings.  He had a very strong regular season, followed by a 4-0 postseason.    Like Mike Mussina before him, some of the career milestones he may consider worthwhile may be too far away for him to want to try to get to.   (He needs 21 wins to get to 250, which is two healthy seasons).      And, unless he has been spending money left and right, a one -year, $10-$12M deal or whatever isn’t exactly something he needs to have.    Of course, these are all reasons he may retire.  The big reason why he won’t is because, like most athletes who don’t retire, he may just not be ready to leave the game just yet.   Regardless, the Yankees may not get a final answer from him for a little while at least.

Two other names you will hear are linked together – Joba Chamberlain & Phil Hughes.    Chamberlain is coming off of an equally bizarre and unspectacular 2009 season.   Hughes has yet to put together a string of consistent major league starts – of course, he hasn’t had many opportunities to do that just yet.    Hughes would seem like a good breakout candidate for 2010 – his bullpen experience likely gained him a lot of confidence.   He has the mix of pitches to be successful – it’s just all about putting together the impressive package.    And there is the innings issue – because Hughes was turned into a short reliever in 2009, he’ll need to rebuild his innings in 2010.   Here’s hoping the Yankees learned from the Joba Chamberlain experience.    Yes, I am assuming Hughes will be a starter in 2010 – I see no reason why he shouldn’t be given that chance.

Chamberlain’s overall stat-line is not exactly terrible:  9-6 record, 4.75 ERA in 157.1 innings.   His strikeout rate was strong enough at 7.6.    He needs to tone down the walks a bit, and perhaps prevent a few extra HRs, but for a first full season, his numbers should fall into the “not bad” category.       The way he was handled, of course, is another story – “strange” would be putting it mildly.   Chamberlain came into spring training with the expectation of being the #5 starter – a guy the Yankees would try to coddle through 150 innings by giving extra rest, taking him out of games, etc.      For many reasons, that just didn’t happen:  Chien-Ming Wang went down early in the year, necessitating a bigger role out of Chamberlain.   Hughes came up to start, but was mostly ineffective (and moved out of the rotation for Wang upon his brief return).      CC-Burnett-Pettitte remained strong and were able to eat up a lot of early season innings, but the Yankees were short a #4 starter…and Joba was the guy they used to fill that role.   Hence, his innings started to pile up…leading the Yankees to do something that you probably haven’t seen before:   Pretty much starting over with Joba and turning August-September into a spring training routine.    Joba didn’t respond well to the new plan, and the Yankees lost their #4 starting option for October.    We won’t get into the whole 3-man rotation thing in the playoffs…but there has to be little doubt that some of it was necessitated by a lack of confidence in Joba.    So what does this mean for 2010?   That’s a big question for the Yankees to answer.     Joba wasn’t asked to throw 157 innings this year for the sake of throwing 70 out of the bullpen in 2010.  He was given the workload so he can throw over 200 innings in 2010.    It would seem rather silly to abandon the plan now…but, at the same time, will the Yankees want to defend their championship with two  young, still unproven starters in their 2010 Opening Day rotation?   We will find out.

Free agency doesn’t offer very much beyond John Lackey, a solid right-hander who is going to likely ask for AJ Burnett money…if not, more.  He is better than Burnett, afterall.    The problem is that, unlike Burnett, he may not have the Yankees in the bidding.  Would the Yankees throw another big contract at a starting pitcher this winter?  Nothing is impossible – but I doubt it.      I don’t think Cashman will have the same “We must get this guy” attitude that brought Teixiera into the mix in 2009.  And without that, I doubt the organization is going to want to spend that type of money on him.    They could roll the dice on guys like Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Ben Sheets, but it is probably best to not go anywhere near them for various reasons….most important of which is the fact that none of them can stay healthy.

In terms of in-house depth, the Yankees will not lack options.   They’ll have Alfredo Aceves under control, a guy who can start if needed (and stretched out properly).    I can see them hanging onto Chien-Ming Wang as a midseason replacement.     And I happen to like the talent of Chad Gaudin, who finds ways to miss bats without the most impressive of fastballs.    They can also decide to keep Sergio Mitre to see what happens once fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.    In the minors, Ian Kennedy should be back to 100% next season.  Zach McAllister, a solid though not elite prospect, will likely start the season in Scranton to provide additional depth to the big club as a middle reliever or emergency starter at some point in 2010.       A lot of these pitchers may not make you feel all that secure…but remember, we are talking DEPTH here, not candidates for the Opening Day rotation.

The Yankees may also spend tens of millions to get Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman, a hard-throwing 22-year old left-hander who may just be the type of talent you simply can’t pass up on.   But for 2010, he’ll be in the minor leagues for whatever team signs him.

So, for now, the 2010 rotation could read:   Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Hughes…with a whole bunch of options lining up behind them.  I think a lot of people would feel secure if another veteran is added to that mix, but all that does is further stunt the development of either Chamberlain or Hughes.  It is a bit of a double-edged sword:  You want to win again, and a veteran pitcher is much more likely to help you do that than two youngsters.  But you also want these two pitchers to develop – and they can’t do that without being in the 2010 rotation.    Best case scenario from where I sit?   Chamberlain & Hughes start 2010 in the rotation – if one flounders, hopefully Wang will fully recover and take over.