Pitching Options

Now that the biggest fish in the pitching ocean has been signed (John Lackey), it is time for the Yankees to look at their own pitching depth to see if there is a move they should make for their own rotation.     I am of the belief that you should never overreact to what other teams do.  The Yankees shouldn’t go out and spend a bushel of money on a league average innings-eater just to counteract what the Red Sox did in signing a legit #2 starter.

The first question that needs to be asked is whether or not the Yankees even need another starter.  Heading into 2010 as of now, the Yankees have three starting pitchers who are 100% assured of being in the rotation if they are healthy:  CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Ben Sheets.  As I mentioned in a previous post, the Yankees also have a nice assortment of depth with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves, Zach McAllister, and Ivan Nova.  I realize this isn’t the depth titles are made from; but the Yankees have put themselves in a position where pitchers like Sidney Ponson will no longer be waiting by the phone if someone’s arm were to fall off.

This brings us to the point of my entry:     If the Yankees want a more “sure thing”, who should they sign?

Let’s take a look at some of the candidates:

Ben Sheets (31 years old; 86-83, 3.72 ERA):   Pros:  A star-type pitcher when healthy, Sheets is what we hope Phil Hughes is to become.    He has a strong mix of pitches, misses a lot of bats, and doesn’t walk anybody.    He is a bit like Mussina in his prime; 4 high quality pitches that he’ll throw in any count.       His 3.85 K/BB ratio is 5th all time.    On top of that, he allows just over 1 home run per nine innings.      Cons:  Well, we don’t have to state the obvious, do we?  Sheets missed the entire 2009 season and has not pitched more than 200 innings in any season since he was 25 years old.    These are the types of trends that usually don’t improve themselves as you get older.       Bottom Line:   On a Rich Harden type of contract, he makes a whole lot of sense.  He may not throw 200 innings, but the top three guys in the rotation can do that.     If you can get 24 or 25 starts out of Sheets, they are likely to be of high quality.    Yes, it is a crapshoot – but of all of the gambles left on the market, he is likely the best bet to get some bang for your buck.   I don’t expect a move to the American League to throw him off; his numbers suggest to me that he’ll survive fine in the AL East, again assuming health.

Erik Bedard (31 years old; 51-41, 3.71 ERA):  Admit it:  There was a time in your life when you said, “The Yankees should give Bedard a shot!”  We’ve all done it; tantalizingly talented left-handed pitcher with stuff to die for in Yankee Stadium.     Pros:   Bedard indeed is that lefty that can leave you wanting more every time you see him pitch.   He throws in the low 90s consistently and can touch higher than that, complimenting it with a strong curveball.  He also has “show me” pitches in a cut fastball and a change.      He’s pitched well while in the American League East for most of his career (at times pitching at a Cy Young caliber rate), and hasn’t pitched poorly since 2004.   Cons:  Questions about his “make-up” (who knows) and his durability keep him off of most team’s radar.   He is one of those pitchers who you can sign for a year and hope that the good version comes out.   On top of that, you have to restrain yourself from overpaying him on an extension if the good version does indeed come out.    A major risk, there is one thing you can count on for the most part:  If he does take the mound, he’ll pitch well regardless of his make-up or demeanor.  And that’s all that matters.   If I am the Yankees, I pass – as Ben Sheets is the better all-around pitcher.    But if nobody else is talking to him and you can bring him in really cheap, maybe I’d change my tune.   Maybe.

Justin Duchscherer (32 years old; 31-24, 3.14 ERA) – If there is one theme you are seeing with these pitchers is that they are on the opposite side of 30 years old and don’t have all that many decisions to their name.   Duchscherer has a bit of an excuse (besides his injuries) in that he has been primarily a reliever in his career.    Pros:   Five pitch pitcher who fits the Yankees “pitchability” mold:  He gets results despite not having the most dazzling stuff ever.   He owns a 3.14 ERA with a fastball that rarely reaches 90 MPH.  For a right-hander, that’s impressive.      Cons:   Well, he has been a starter once in his career…and broke down to the point where he missed the entire 2009 season.  That’s not encouraging.  He’s more of a flyer type to throw into the bullpen mix in my opinion.  I wouldn’t really give him much of a thought if I am the Yankees.

Jason Marquis (31 years old; 94-83, 4.48 ERA) – Pros:   A what-you-see-is-what-you-get type, Marquis is an extreme ground ball pitcher who can thrive in the right conditions.    Though not an innings-eater, he usually makes his starts – giving his teams 30 or more starts in 5 of his last 6 seasons.    That’s the type of durability you like to see at the end of a rotation; a guy who will take the ball, typically won’t beat himself, and gives you a chance to win the game.       Cons:    If you can’t play defense, don’t bother.   Marquis cannot strike hitters out and walks too many of them; a classic nibbler who just wants one hitter to come to the plate and ground into a rally-killing double play.  That works for a lot of pitchers, and Marquis has survived a while with his strategy.     He seemingly hasn’t garnered much interest, but it would take a very cheap contract for Cashman to take a flyer here.  He just relies on way too many variables for my liking.   His saving grace is his ability to keep the ball on the ground in a park that played homer-friendly in its first year.

Joel Piniero (31 years old; 87-79, 4.39 ERA) – Pros:  Another extreme ground-ball pitcher, Piniero went off-the-charts in 2009, posting a 2.54 GB/FB ratio and 60.5% GB rate.    He allowed 11 home runs all season in 214 innings…a season after in which he gave up 22 in 148.2 innings.    What differentiates Piniero even more from Marquis is his ability to force hitters to make contact; he walked only 27 batters all season, and his walk rate has trended downward for a few seasons now, though his huge 2009 season still stands out above the rest.    Cons:  Like Marquis (and a lot of ground ball guys), he didn’t strike anyone out.  His low walk-rate compensated for the low K-rate, but it still should be noted.  Any uptick in his walk rate back to career norms would doom him.     His 2009 season looks like such an outlier compared to the rest of his career that you cannot help by question it.   Dave Duncan put a simple plan into place for Piniero:   Pretty much, throw your sinking fastball as often as you like and we’ll see what happens.  The result?  He threw 71% fastballs while putting much less of an emphasis on his change, and had the best season of his life.      What I would do:  A lot of people may be surprised, but I’d put Piniero on my list if I were Cashman.    He’s always been a ground-ball guy, and although his 2009 season was extreme, it is not impossible that he’ll be able to sustain it or at least come close.  The biggest issue, of course, is that Piniero had such a big year that he is going to probably want at least 3 years, and from a personal standpoint, I don’t like that.   A very unlikely sign, but I can see a team getting some dividends from him in the first half of any contract he gets.

Jon Garland (30 years old; 117-102, 4.42 ERA)  Pros:  A true model of consistency, Garland has made 30 or more starts in every season since 2002, and thrown more than 200 innings in most of them.   His ground-ball rates usually stay within a certain percentage (expect somewhere around 45-48% or so), and his K/BB ratio is also usually within line of his career.   He is one of the more consistent pitchers of the generation.  You can write what he is going to do in black marker and be fairly confident that he’ll end up exactly where you predicted he would.    The type of guy you run out there every five days and not worry too much about the results.     He added a cutter in 2009 and had one of his better all-around seasons.   Cons:   But of course, sometimes those results can be very bad.  Garland gets by with an assortment of very much average stuff – some of which is below average.      He had a solid year pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in an easy division.      Bottom Line:   Regardless of all of that, this is  a guy who many teams just love to have in their rotation; he’ll likely pitch 200 league-average innings and will never need to be skipped or replaced in the rotation.  He is rock-solid health wise, and makes stuff that appears rather ordinary work for him.      He would want a multi-year deal, but probably wouldn’t be too costly.   Definitely someone to consider if you want stability at the end of the rotation.

Brett Myers (29 years old; 73-63, 4.40 ERA) – Pros:   Power pitchers are always nice to have around, as they can get out of their own jams.  Myers has struck out 7.5 hitters per 9 innings in his career, and has a solid 2.39 K/BB ratio.    He’s also the youngest established pitcher on the free agent list.     Cons:  Myers has never had much of a reputation for being a likable guy, and Cashman seems to be putting a big emphasis on character nowadays.   He also gives up plenty of home runs, which isn’t a good thing for a right-handed pitcher in Yankee Stadium.  Of course, he has given up those home runs while with the Phillies, so it’s unlikely his HR rate would spike too much.     Bottom Line:  Regardless, he is only on this list because of his talent; it would be one of the biggest shockers of the off-season for me if the Yankees even made a courtesy call.

Aaron Harang (31 years old; 75-80, 4.24 ERA) – Would need to be acquired in a trade.    Pros:  Harang, like Sheets, is a K/BB ratio machine.  In 1,340 career innings, Harang has a K/BB ratio of 3.04, good for 36th on the all-time list.    Harang is also durable, despite missing the final months of the 2009 season due to an appendectomy.    He may also come cheaply in terms of what the Yankees would need to give up as the Reds are likely looking to dump his salary and may put too much emphasis on his very misleading 12-31 record the last few seasons.     (His BABIP in 2009 was an incredible .339.)   Cons:  Harang doesn’t generate many ground balls, and flyball throwing right-handers aren’t exactly the type of pitchers the Yankees should be coveting.      Bottom Line:   Despite the flyball tendencies, he still has managed to pitch very well for the Reds, due to his ability to strike hitters out and keep them off base via the walk.    If a pitcher is going to give up a decent number of home runs, it’s best to do it with nobody on base obviously.   I don’t think Cashman uses any more chips of significance to go after a Harang, though.

Chien-Ming Wang (30 years old; 55-26, 4.16 ERA) – Pros:   The Yankees are obviously very familiar with what Wang can do when he is healthy.   A turbo-sinker specialist (Wang has thrown 76.8% fastballs in his career, generating ground-balls 57.5% of the time) with nastier stuff than his K rates signify, Wang of course got hurt in the middle of 2008, was probably rushed back in 2009, and got hurt again…this time in the arm.     A healthy Wang is a nice fit for the ballpark, as he will keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark; Wang has allowed 0.6 HR/9 innings in his career, leading the league in both 2006 and 2007.    Cons:   The injury is the biggest con, to go along with his brutal 2009 when he did get on the hill.  Whether he was healthy or not, it’s tough to ignore the destruction.    Although he is still a strong ground ball pitcher, his rates have trended downward in each season of his career.    And of course, you have those darn strikeouts – despite throwing tantalizing sinkers that sometimes hit the mid-90s, Wang has always been a pure contact pitcher as he rarely uses his secondary pitches to try to fool anybody.     On the flipside of that, his approach does lead to many efficient starts where he cruises through a game in less than 90 pitches.    Bottom Line:  The Yankees know him, he is well liked, and although he isn’t the perfect pitcher, he is a very solid pitcher when he is healthy.   I expect the Yankees to offer some sort of split contract with many incentives that can pay him handsomely.  I’d give him a 2-year deal, personally – first year, let him go at his own pace to get back on the mound.   Second year, hope that the patience really pays off.   He’s a risk, but the Yankees can afford this risk.

Aroldis Chapman (22 years old) – Pros:   Left-handed pitchers who can throw as hard as Chapman do not come around very often.  The Yankees have the funds (and the patience) to sign him and let him develop at his own pace in the minor leagues.   Chapman would likely start in AA and move himself up to AAA relatively quickly if all went well.  This wouldn’t be a move you make for 2010, but it could pay some dividends as early as 2011.    Cons:   Not many, other than the fact that he could become a sunk cost if he doesn’t develop.    His control is reportedly very erratic, and he won’t help any team right away.      Bottom Line:  You are signing him based on potential.     I will throw out a potential comparison here:  Brien Taylor, though Taylor perhaps through a little harder more consistently.    Just keep him away from the bars.   I wouldn’t call him a must sign, but the Yankees must make an offer in my opinion.

So, if I am the Yankees, I look hard at Sheets, Piniero, and Wang.   Chapman in terms of the future.    I’d sniff around Bedard & Garland, but I don’t think they need a Jon Garland type and I feel that Sheets is the better risk than Bedard.   I’d stay away from Myers, Marquis, and Duchscherer.