Relievers Will Break Your Heart

Columns, Featured — By Ian Collier on May 30, 2010 2:23 pm

Apparently, baseball has its unwritten rules.   This season, we, as mere observers, have been lucky enough to discover a new one nearly every week.  Never walk over a pitcher’s mound (via Dallas Braden).  Never send your starter out to warm up just to get your reliever a few more reps (via Ron Gardenhire).  Never steal a base with a big lead, even in the fourth inning (via Ozzie Guillen).  Never express anger after hitting a pop-up (via Chris Carpenter / Carlos Lee).

I’d like to throw my hat in the ring on this subject.  Now, never having played the game at a level higher than Little League, the pros can feel free to place this one in the circular file.  And really, it’s more a rule for fans, managers, and front office execs, along the lines of TINSTAAPP.  Here goes: never fall in love with a relief pitcher.  Those dudes will break your heart time and again.

A common stathead mantra is that relievers are fungible.  Some years they’re great, some years they suck, and most years they sit comfortably between the two extremes.  It’s incredibly rare to find a relief pitcher that you can consistently count on for quality innings for more than a couple of seasons at a time.  This is what makes guys like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Joe Nathan so valuable.  This is also why giving guys like Kyle Farnsworth, Brandon Lyon, and BJ Ryan multi-year deals is a fool’s errand.

Which brings us to the case of David Robertson.  Oh, David.  So dominant last season.  The second best K/9 IP ratio (12.98) of all relievers in Major League Baseball with 40 IP, behind only Jonathan Broxton (13.5).  Just 24 years old.  Cheap.  Under team control for the foreseeable future.

There are three things that make relievers awesome, generally speaking: the ability to strike guys out, the ability to not walk them, and the ability to keep them from hitting home runs.  David had two of those things going for him in 2009.  He gave up just 4 HR in 43.2 IP, and struck out 63.  That 4.74 BB/9 IP was not great, to be sure, but not entirely unacceptable for a guy with fewer hits allowed than IP and a huge K rate.  At just 24, it was reasonable to believe that he’d begin to throw more strikes.

And the heroic Houdini act he pulled in Game 2 of the ALDS.  You know the one.  Bases loaded, 11^th inning, no one out.  Escape seemed impossible, defeat inevitable.  At the time, I was hoping for the pessimist’s best case scenario – sac fly and a double play ground ball, 1 run scores, and we’ve got a shot to tie in the bottom of the inning.  Instead, Robertson bears down; lineout, ground out with a force at home, fly out.  Inning over, no runs scored.  Tex leads off the bottom of the inning with a home run, and the rest is history.

I think, by the end of the 2009 season, it was safe to say I was full-on in love with David Robertson.

One of the things that had been driving me nuts about the post-Dynasty Yankees – and there were a lot of things – was the utter inability to develop successful relief pitching.  I looked at teams like Minnesota and San Diego, veritable relief pitcher factories, and was frustrated that the Yankees couldn’t pull the same trick.  Instead, like suckers, we were paying for Steve Karsay, Farnsworth, Tom Gordon, LaTroy Hawkins, The Run Fairy, Chris Hammond, Paul Quantrill, Ron Villone, Felix Rodriguez, et al.  Even the guys we did ‘develop’ – Scott Proctor, Scott Proctor, and uh…Scott Proctor, were mediocrities ridden hard out of necessity and put away wet.

Then, riding on a beautiful white horse with shining armor, came David Robertson, a bona fide relief pitching prospect with nasty stuff and a ton of K potential.  Not a starting pitching prospect we mishandled into being an inconsistent, frustrating reliever, but a born reliever, a guy with the ceiling of a dominant set up man.  And we were paying for him with couch quarters and pocket lint.

Then 2010 happened.

Now I feel stupid.  I feel used.  Everything I ever believed about relief pitchers – that they were flaky, prone to bouts of inconsistency, wildly unpredictable from year to year – I stopped believing in them.  Chan Ho Park – good signing.  Damaso Marte – turned a corner in the postseason (finally healthy!).  David Robertson – stud in the making.  One hundred strikeouts in 2010!  Set up man by year’s end!

David Robertson made me believe that relief pitchers can change.  Then he puts up a 7.31 ERA, a 2 WHIP, walks 9 in 16 IP, and hurts himself.  Marte goes back to being a LOOGY with horrible control, just as likely to walk the lefty he’s brought into face as get him out.  Chan Ho Park fights diarrhea, Dustin Pedroia, and a bum hamstring.  Joba – I’m not ready to write about Joba yet.  Yesterday’s loss still stings too much for me to think anything rational about him.  I’m counting to 10 and walking away.

Is Robertson likely to improve?  Yes.  His inflated .434 BABIP and 17.6% HR / fly ball rate suggests he’s been unlucky.  In fact, his ground ball rate is bang on with last year’s numbers and his fly ball rate is even lower (34% this season vs. 41.3% last year).  But here’s the thing: these numbers aren’t guaranteed to revert to the mean because of how few innings he’s going to throw.  And this is why you can’t fall in love with relievers.  Some years, it all falls into place, they pitch to the league average BABIP, 5% of their fly balls go over the fence, and the line drives get caught.  Then some years, they give up too many fly balls while pitching in the wrong parks, the league hits .400 when they put the ball in play, and the line drives find gaps.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.  I’d take either from any member of the 2010 Yankees’ bullpen.  And when it comes to my love of David Robertson, the bloom is off the rose.  He’s just like all the rest.  They’ll never change.

Tags: Brandon Lyon, Carlos Lee, Chris Carpenter, Chris Hammond, Dallas Braden, David Robertson, diarrhea, Dustin Pedroia, Felix Rodriguez, Joba Chamberlain, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Mariano Rivera, Paul Quantrill, Ron Gardenhire, Ron Villone, Scott Proctor, Steve Karsay, Tom Gordon, Trevor Hoffman